David Menachof
Florida Atlantic University

Abstract:

This seminar explains the creation of a Port Economic Engine Sentiment Index. The initial implementation of this index will be in cooperation with a major Florida port. Traditionally, economic indices are an ex-post review, meaning that they reflect economic activity in the prior period, but are not an ex ante prediction of the future.  The index is a quantitative approach that asks a series of questions to operating members of the port community.  It is being modelled on other existing indices that attempt to reflect industry sentiment regarding future economic activities.  For example, the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index surveys purchasing managers for expectations of future growth in their firm.  Research has not found an existing sentiment index for the port community.  There are several indices that reflect ex-post activity in the port community, including the New York-New Jersey Pulse Index.  WTO’s Outlook Indicator (WTOI) attempts to predict future sentiment using prior trend data, but does not appear to directly ask about sentiment.  The index being developed will be a completely new index to measure port economic activity and has the ability to be used globally with direct input from members of each port’s community. This sentiment index will provide a forward looking view for the port community, and be able to potentially spot trends in advance rather than just reporting those trends afterwards.  Better decisions regarding future investment in equipment, infrastructure and labour should result.

David Menachof is Associate Professor of Supply Chain and Operations Management at Florida Atlantic University. 

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Venue
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering
Building B26/B – Room 0.2 – ground floor
Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano